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LOCAL AND NATIONAL
(Updated Dec 17, 2004 by William Fox)
Jan 23, 2005: "Mining and Robotics." A next new thing joins the commodities bull market. Korelin Economics Report. Short interview at the 23-24 Jan 2005 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. I compare the inspiring and strategic nature of the "final frontier" of the industrial revolution vs. the unfortunate economic realities that are ultimately driving the commodities bull market. 15 minute Interview
April 14, 2004: STREETTALK LIVE, one hour interview by Lance Roberts. The interview focused on my article "Back of the Envelope Analysis for $1,000 Gold in Five Years." This show was originally carried on Business Radio 650, Houston, TX. (Lance Roberts is now on AM 700, Houston). To listen to the show on your computer, which is divided into two half hour installments, double click the links below. Right click to download the MP3 files:........ First half hour....... Second half hour.
Media policy. Although I have not been chasing after media engagements, I have welcomed several invitations to date. The Streettalk interview invitation listed above was prompted by my web articles on gold. In Nov 2001 and June 2002 I responded to stock market commentary requests by Portland’s KATU Channel Two Television News. In each case I provided about thirty minutes of videotaped interview footage that the local station edited down to a few minutes at its discretion.
I love to give seminars!...Particularly
for groups within relatively easy driving distance of Portland, Oregon
and Vancouver Washington, unless someone is willing to pick up my transportation
and lodging expenses to cross the country. While I worked at Morgan
Stanley, I gave frequent seminars on basic investment topics related
to stocks and bonds, or broader topics such as “Beating Bank CD’s
and Reaching for Higher Yields,” “Global Investing,”
“Retirement Planning,” “Saving for Education,”
”Modern Portfolio Theory,” or “Financial Planning
for Today’s Woman.” I have also spoken before a number of
chapters of the National Association of Investors Corp (NAIC) and before
401(K) plan members where I have served in an advisory capacity regarding
broader investment strategy issues.
These include the basic investment topics mentioned above covered in the past. I am also willing to discuss any of the broader issues addressed in articles that I have posted to this web site.
Lest my views and concerns expressed in papers such “A Bear Case Overview” and “Amidst Bullish Hoopla” seem too far afield, please be aware that similar sentiments have been expressed in major national media sources.
One good example is Neil Weinberg’s article “Here We Go Again: Think this stock rally is different? So did the Japanese,” in Forbes Magazine, July 7, 2003, page 52. Weinberg superimposed a graph of the S&P 500 from 1994 to mid 2003 over a graph of the Nikkei from 1984 to 1993, which also shows the continued downward performance of the Nikkei from 1993 up until mid 2003. Weinberg wrote: “…look at this chart and its eerie parallels. Our own market traced a path similar to Japan’s on its way up and has done the same so far on the way down. And, yes, Japan’s market suckered in loads of investors along the way. Three years after its bubble burst in 1989, the Nikkei had a nifty 30% run up. That convinced many investors the worst was over, except it wasn’t. Two years later investors piled into another 55% rally, only to succumb to a similar fate.” Weinberg finishes by saying, “The bulls might be right that this U.S. rally is not of the sucker variety. But keep some assets in reserve just in case.”
To help make the bear viewpoint more palatable to the general public, I like to take the position that there is not any one particular economic viewpoint or investment strategy that holds dominion over the entire truth in all situations. Often the best approach involves making the right trade offs between opposing viewpoints, that is, achieving the “synthesis” between “thesis” and “antithesis.” We see analogous tradeoffs in the natural sciences, ranging from the wave vs. particle debate over the nature of electromagnetic radiation in physics to the nature vs. nurture debate regarding animal behavior in zoology and human behavior in psychology. In economics and investments, the broad conceptual dualities lie along the axes of “top down” vs. “bottom up” economic structures and the analysis of man as a rational economic actor vs. man as an instinctive, sociobiological actor. (Deviations from rational functioning related to evolutionarily-related cognitive “hard wiring” can be found in academic works that deal with informal logical fallacies, propaganda, and psycho-political warfare).
The kinds of topics and viewpoints that I am currently focused on are likely to change over time relative to where I think the imbalances in the national debate and markets have shifted. For the moment, I am more focused on the bull case for precious metals, other commodity-related investments, and for foreign bonds. I am also more focused on the long term secular bear market case for the overall stock market. In terms of discussing general economic theory, my focus is currently on the “bottom up” libertarian or “Austrian” school of economics as a possible antidote for the major problems involved with the “top-down” Keynesian and Monetarist approaches advocated by America’s “establishment.”
If you are a media person anywhere in the country looking for some counterpoint or less well known perspectives, or if you are someone involved with a group in my area that needs a speaker or panelist on investment-related topics, please give me a call or send me an e-mail.
Flag carried by the 3rd Maryland Regiment at the Battle of Cowpens, S. Carolina, 1781
© William Fox. Sometimes William Fox offers viewpoints that are not necessarily his own to provide additional perspectives.